(In the final days of an election, there is so much information from so many races, it's difficult to stay on top of every story and understand the subtle dynamics often at play on the ground. Thankfully, we have an expansive 50-state blogosphere to match our 50-state strategy. Over the last two weeks of the campaign, we've asked leaders of the state blogospheres to provide insight into late developments and share the stories of their states in a series we're calling "Listening to the Locals." SusanG)
Remember the Nevada caucus? It may seem like it's been ages since we had arguments about caucusing in casinos but the positive effects are clearly visible just three days before election day. Democratic presidential candidates were all over Nevada while Republicans mostly ignored the Silver State. The Democratic strongholds are in Clark County (Las Vegas and suburbs) and, slowly but steadily emerging, Washoe County (Reno). In the past, if Democratic presidential candidates would even bother visiting Nevada they'd make a short stop in Las Vegas or Reno but ignore the rest of the state. The caucus changed all that and Democrats took to the rurals: Chris Dodd in Pahrump, Bill Richardson in Minden, Joe Biden in Henderson, John Edwards in Elko, Barack Obama in Fallon, Dennis Kucinich in Carson City, and Hillary Clinton in Fernley.
This presence across Nevada led to a significant increase in registered Democratic voters across the state. In February 2007 there were 479k registered Democrats. One year later, after the caucus, this number stood at 531k. And with Obama's continuous registration efforts it now stands at 624,995, outpacing Republican registration by more than 100k. Washoe County now actually has 1,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered. I'm telling you all this because it will have an unprecedented effect across the board this coming Tuesday.
President: The Nevada caucus plus an increase in registration plus demoralized Republicans plus enthusiastic Democrats plus heavy early voting turnout among Democrats ultimately leads to this. Obama's in Nevada today for one final rally to close the deal. Now it's all gotv.
Congress: Nevada's 1st CD has emerged as a safe Democratic district over the years and Republicans have again failed to file a serious challenger to Rep. Shelley Berkley virtually ensuring her reelection.
NV-2 is basically the opposite of Berkley's district. This used to be a safe Republican district and has seldom seen a serious Democratic challenger since its creation after the 1980 census. That was until 2006 when incumbent Rep. Jim Gibbons ran for Governor, Republican nominee Dean Heller emerged from a hotly contested primary, and Democrats filed a superb candidate in former Board of Regents member Jill Derby. In the end this race was closer than it was supposed to and Heller won by just five points, barely receiving over 50% of the vote.
After chairing the Nevada State Democratic Party through the caucus, Jill Derby decided to go for a rematch this year and with good reason. Not only are incumbents most vulnerable when they are freshmen but the makeup of the district has changed significantly in the past two years. The gap in active voters has gone from 47k to just 22k while Heller's winning margin in 2006 was just a little over 12k. You do the math...
Still, most people did not have this race on their radar which changed this week with a R2K poll out showing Derby just three points down and early voting exit polls showing her ahead by 11 points. If you want to know more about where Jill stands on the issues, from Iraq to the economy, from education to the environment, then check out the Q&A with My Silver Stateshe did a couple of months ago.
NV-3 is Nevada's toss-up district and yet incumbent Jon Porter managed to win ever so slightly come election day every two years, in 2006 by barely 4k votes. So, it was with bewilderment that we watched one high profile Democrat after the other decline to run against Porter. In the end the party recruited Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas at the beginning of the year. Unexpectedly, he dropped out at the end of April. Luckily for Nevada and Democrats 2006 gubernatorial nominee and State Senate Min. Leader Dina Titus stepped up and entered the race, behind in money but with full enthusiasm, a couple of days later.
Again, the numbers are encouraging. Dina won the district in her failed run for governor and the registration gap has gone from 3k voters in 2006 to a whopping 40k voters in 2008. Faced with these odds, what's the Republican incumbents reaction? Smearing his opponent and resurrecting Jim Gibbons' "Dina Taxes" campaign from 2006. Needless to say that the smears have been debunked by the press. The latest Daily Kos R2K poll showed Dina ahead by two points, with a 12 point edge in early voting. With the help of the Obama campaign's gotv efforts this should be a Democratic pickup.
State Senate: Getting less attention but significant nonetheless are two hotly contested State Senate seats. The current makeup of the senate is 11 R and 10 D, so Democrats need to win just one additional seat to take the majority. This is important as a counter balance to Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons and, looking ahead to the 2010 census with the prospect of at least one additional congressional district, for redistricting. My Silver State has done a Q&A with Democratic SD-6 candidate Allison Copening.
State Assembly: In the Assembly, Democrats are just one seat away from a two third majority and the likeliest pickup opportunity is in AD-13 which encompasses some of the rural and suburban parts of Clark County. The Republican incumbent initially announced his retirement only to change his mind days later and Democrats got lucky when the openly gay CPA Andrew Martin dropped out of the NV-3 race in favor of Dina Titus and started running for this seat. Our opportunities here are stronger than one might think due to the change in registration numbers and the fact that even the conservative Las Vegas Review-Journal is fed up with incumbent Chad Christensen and has endorsed Andrew Martin, the only Democratic challenger they endorsed. While I hope that everyone of the candidates mentioned above wins nothing would be sweeter on election night than seeing an openly gay Democrat in a rural/suburban Republican stronghold win the seat needed for a two third majority in the assembly. To learn more about Andrew you can read a My Silver State Q&A here.
Read: My Silver State
Give: Nevada Bloggers for Jill Derby and Dina Titus
